Internal working document. TheBudtender 12-month forecast model. Not for client share without sign-off.
12-month forecast model

What twelve months of considered growth looks like.

Drag the four sliders to see how organic traffic, conversion, retention, and ad spend compound into revenue over a year. Click a scenario to load a preset.

TheBudtender hemp field

The four levers

Each lever moves independently. The chart, KPIs, and table below recalculate in real time as you drag.

Organic traffic growth+15%
Month-over-month compounding. SEO, content, organic social.
Conversion rate2.4%
Site visitors who buy. Hemp ecom baseline is 1.8 to 3.2 percent.
Repeat buyer rate35%
Customers who order a second time within the year.
Paid ad spendEUR 1,500
Per month. Reddit, X, cannabis-friendly DSPs. Estimated EUR 3.50 CPC, 1.6% landing-page CTR.

12-month revenue projection

Monthly revenue in EUR. Watch the curve recompute as you move the sliders.

Month 12 MRR
EUR 0
monthly revenue at end of year
12-month cumulative
EUR 0
total revenue across the year
Month 12 customers
0
unique buyers in that month
Blended CAC
EUR 0
cost per acquired customer

Scenario comparison at month 12

All four presets side by side. Base is the recommended starting tier.

ScenarioTraffic growthConversionRetentionAd spendM12 MRRAnnual revenue

What's in the model, what isn't

Baked in

  • Starting revenue baseline of EUR 25,000 per month, drawn from the audit signals (244 SKUs, 2,531 reviews, 12 months of order history visible).
  • Average order value of EUR 68, based on visible cart structure on the live site.
  • Organic traffic compounding monthly. Conversion and retention held flat across the year.
  • Paid acquisition adds visitors on top of organic, at EUR 3.50 blended CPC and 1.6 percent landing-page conversion.
  • Repeat buyer rate applied to prior-month customers, monthly.

Not in the model

  • Seasonality. The model is linear-compounding. Real months will swing 15 to 25 percent above or below the curve.
  • HHC jurisdiction tightening. A France-style ban in a second EU market would clip the curve by 8 to 12 percent.
  • Wholesale and B2B channels. Modelled as DTC ecom only.
  • AOV lift from premium product mix, range extensions, or subscription model. All upside.
  • Press hits, influencer breakouts, or viral content. Treated as zero.
04

Recommended starting tier: Base scenario at EUR 4,000 per month retainer

Base assumes 15 percent monthly organic growth, 2.4 percent conversion, 35 percent retention, and EUR 1,500 per month ad spend. The retainer covers organic strategy and execution; ad spend is media-cost on top, billed directly.